Analysis of main influencing factors of bisphenol

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Analysis on the main influencing factors of bisphenol a market in March

bisphenol A's external market fluctuated higher in March, while the spot market fluctuated driven by the fundamentals of supply and demand and costs. It went out of an "n" market, and the market switched frequently again. The price difference between the high and low end of the market was around 1000 yuan/ton. We will wait and see what trend the bisphenol a market will take in March. The main influencing factors of the bisphenol a market in March are as follows:

cost factors: from February to early March, the international crude oil surged and fluctuated, and Iran's geopolitical problems and the improving U.S. economic data will continue to provide some support. At present, the upstream strong and the middle and lower weak led by energy are still the norm, However, it is also inconvenient to take and place samples with time, and the cost of space is transferred, and the downstream part may fluctuate higher. The contract price of pure benzene in Europe, America and Asia rose and fell in March. Among them, the contract price of pure benzene in Asia, Japan's largest refinery, Nippon Oil, rose 65 dollars/ton at 1260 dollars/ton CFR Asia, fell 52 euros to 927 euros/ton in Europe, and rose 3 cents/gallon in the United States, while the contract price of ethylene and propylene in Europe rose 86 euros/ton and 90 euros/ton respectively in March. In January, Asian ethylene cracking units were intensively overhauled. Under the influence of the contradiction between supply and demand, upstream petrochemical products are also prone to rise but difficult to fall, or provide positive cost support for the bisphenol a industrial chain

impact of external market: China's dependence on bisphenol A imports is more than 50%, and the impact of external market on the spot market is self-evident. In March, the external supply of PTT device maintenance in Thailand decreased by about 10000 tons, and the main suppliers South Asia, LG, Jinhu, etc. were actively supported by high costs. Since mid February, the offer has generally been pushed up to 1800 dollars/ton CFR China's main port or above. Although some manufacturing enterprises have certain expectations of large-scale shipments in March, the probability of bisphenol A occupying a high position is still high driven by high costs. In February, bisphenol a import negotiations generally focused on the US dollar/ton CFR main port of China, and the overall cost will be significantly higher than that in the past three months of last year

domestic supply is slightly tight: in March, Sinopec Mitsubishi 150000 T/a device was overhauled in the first half of the month, and the subsequent BPA and PC (one line) increased the load at the same time. Huizhou Zhongxin 25000 T/a device was overhauled to the middle of March. Shanghai Bayer's external sales volume decreased to about 1000 tons due to the increase of downstream PC load. Mitsubishi Gas 80000 T/a PC device is planned to be put into trial operation in March, and the external sales volume of Sinopec Mitsui contract supply part was further reduced, The output of Nantong Xingchen 90000 T/a device is mainly for self use. At that time, the circulation of domestic bisphenol a commodities will be reduced compared with last month. On the other hand, since February, phenol has increased first and then decreased, and the weight of acetone has increased further. Both spot and imported raw materials from manufacturers are high, with obvious cost pressure, and major manufacturers have strong intention to support prices

downstream demand: in February, bisphenol A and epichlorohydrin, two raw materials of epoxy resin, rose synchronously, and the manufacturers were under obvious pressure. In particular, the high cost of solid resin was not easy to be transferred, and the contradiction was prominent. The manufacturers' shipments were not smooth, and the inventory was increasing, which restrained the demand for raw materials to a certain extent. In March, the downstream gradually entered the traditional peak demand season, and the demand may improve to some extent; On the other hand, two domestic PC devices were put into operation successively in the second half of this month, and the demand for raw materials increased. Moreover, in February, the external strength and internal weakness of PC were obvious. Driven by the high cost and external market in March, the PC market in the international market may continue to fluctuate at a high level, and the downstream recovery needs attention

in terms of market mentality: in February, the spot price of bisphenol a fluctuated, and the external quotation was relatively strong. It was not easy for importers or second-hand merchants to make inquiries at low prices, whether in spot or external quotation, and the overall cost gradually increased. Moreover, after more than a month of consumption, the early profit-making was expected to have a smaller impact on the market. However, the strength of the upstream market, the gradual recovery of demand and the loose expectation of subsequent liquidity and other comprehensive factors make the industry still have some cautious and optimistic expectations for the future market, especially the current upside down of the internal and external disks of bisphenol A and the survival status of the edge of the cost line of production enterprises, which makes most of the industry expect that the action of bisphenol A is limited

external environment: under the influence of comprehensive factors such as the improvement of U.S. economic data in February, the weakening of European debt problems, and the promotion of high energy prices, although the overall commodity market has warmed up as a whole, under the influence of factors such as weak terminal demand and high inventory in the chemical market, many products are still reflected in the offline deviation of strong upstream demand, weak demand in small and medium-sized downstream, strong external (market) and weak internal (trade). In March, sprinkle some stearic acid on the screw; Then use the copper wire net to remove the remaining residues. The two sessions are about to be held. The European debt is due centrally, and the policy and external news need to be paid close attention. In the season when the demand is warm and cold, many petrochemical products seem to be difficult to get rid of the fate of consolidation until they are broken and destroyed

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