Brief analysis of the most popular Vietnamese pape

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A brief analysis of Vietnam's paper industry I. current situation

(I) small scale. There are 145 paper and pulp production enterprises in China. Among them, there are 100 paper mills and 45 pulp mills. Two paper mills with an annual production capacity of more than 50000 tons, namely Baiping and Xinmei paper mills; Two paper mills with annual production capacity of 20000-50000 tons, namely, tongnai and new Toyo paper mills; Two paper mills with an annual production capacity of 10000 tons to 20000, namely Yuechi and Haiphong paper mills; There are 12 paper mills with an annual production capacity of million tons. The total annual production capacity is 455000 tons of paper products, which can meet 70% of domestic demand; 200000 tons of pulp can only meet 43% of domestic demand

(II) backward process, obsolete equipment, high production cost and low competitiveness. Most of the existing production enterprises were built in the s of last century. According to the estimation of Vietnam Paper Corporation, the most modern process technology and equipment of Vietnamese paper mills are also years behind the world. As a result, the production cost of paper products is as high as US $1800 to US $2000/ton, while the price of similar imported products is only about US $1000 to US $1200. In the first quarter of 2003, Vietnam imported 85000 tons of paper products, with a year-on-year increase of 9%. The import volume was 1.88 times that of Vietnam Paper Corporation, which released very little heat when burning. As a result, the paper inventory of the Corporation reached 35000 tons. For this reason, the subsidiary of the head office was forced to stop production to sell paper products in stock

II. Market demand forecast and development planning

(I) market demand forecast

2000, 2005, 2010

annual per capita consumption (kg) 6.4 9.4 14.5

demand for paper products (10000 tons) 5078128.6

including 6.5 8.5 12

printing and writing paper 1522.6 36.5

packaging paper 274169

(II) development planning. The Vietnamese government plans to invest US $4.45 billion in the reconstruction and expansion of the existing 12 paper mills to make their total production capacity reach 722000 tons of paper products; 574000 tons of pulp; Invest in the construction of 17 new paper mills, with a total new production capacity of 687000 tons of paper products and 1.78 million tons of pulp. By 2010, the output of paper products will increase to 1.26 million tons, which is 3.15 times of the output of 20 in 2000 for tensile strength, constant elongation, constant elongation and yield strength. Among them, 126000 tons of paper, 324000 tons of printing and writing paper, 632000 tons of packaging paper and 179000 tons of other materials basically meet the domestic market demand; 2.26 million tons of pulp, in addition to meeting domestic production demand, there are 1million tons available for export

site planning of raw material forest area and pulp mill:

1. In the northwest, 100000 hectares of pulp mills with an annual output of 100000 tons will be built in ShanLuo and Laizhou respectively

2. In the eastern (middle) and northern regions, 365000 hectares, 200000 ton/year pulp mills will be built in Baiping and Beijiang, and 50000 ton/year pulp mills will be built in Beijian

3. In the north central region, 220000 hectares, a 200000 ton/year pulp mill will be built in Qinghua and a 100000 ton/year pulp mill will be built in Yi'an

4. In the central and southern regions, 105000 hectares, a 200000 ton pulp mill will be built in Danang, Guangnan

5. In Xiyuan and Southeast China, 330000 hectares, kunsong pulp mill with an annual output of 390000 tons, Lintong pulp mill with an annual output of 200000 tons and Pingfu pulp mill with an annual output of 50000 tons will be built respectively

6. In the southwest region, 20000 hectares, a 40000 ton/year pulp mill will be built in longan

the total area of raw material forest is 1140000 hectares, and the total annual production capacity of the pulp mill is 1780000 tons

III. Project under construction

(I) kunsong paper mill. The annual production capacity of phase I project is 130000 tons of pulp; The second phase project will increase to 260000 tons of pulp/year

(II) Qinghua pulp and paper factory. The first phase of the project was successfully developed, with an annual production capacity of 50000 tons of pulp and 60000 tons of paper products; The second phase will increase to 200000 tons of pulp and 210000 tons of paper products

(III) Beijian pulp mill. The annual production capacity is 50000 tons of pulp

the above projects are planned to be completed and put into operation in 2006

IV. government preferential policies

(I) the government will provide preferential loans for the construction of pulp mills. The general loan term is years, the grace period is 4 years, and the annual interest rate is 3%. The government provides 70% loan for the sewage treatment project

(II) for pulp and forestry projects with high technology and reasonable structure, the government allows the selection of contractors through bid negotiation

(III) provide loans with an annual interest rate of 2.5% to the growers of raw material forests, and exempt from relevant taxes in the first cycle of timber production, and halve the tax in the second cycle

v. difficulties faced

(I) shortage of funds. The paper industry needs huge funds. The kunsong pulp mill phase I project under construction now needs us $244million, while the total working capital of Vietnam Paper Corporation is only about US $100million. Therefore, the paper industry has not invested in the construction of any paper mill or pulp mill for many years. At present, the largest paper mill in Vietnam is still the Baiping paper mill which was not aided by Sweden in the 1970s

(2) the raw material forest is insufficient and scattered, and the yield and quality are not high (5) the effect of supply side reform is obvious. At present, Vietnam has about 200000 hectares of natural raw material forests, 340000 hectares of artificial raw material forests, and about 3.5 million bamboo plants. However, the yield of raw material forest in Vietnam is only m3/ha, while the yield of raw material forest in many countries in the world has reached 200 m3/ha. Vietnam plans to plant 5million hectares of trees in 2010, of which 3million hectares are raw material forests. However, due to the poor infrastructure, inconvenient transportation and low income of tree growers in Vietnam, little progress has been made in the afforestation plan. Kunsong pulp mill, the largest pulp production project started construction in 1999, was temporarily suspended from drawing investment funds in july2002 due to little progress in investment in raw material forest areas (only 1500 hectares of trees were planted in two years). It is possible to readjust the investment plan of the plant according to the situation of the raw material forest area

(III) facing strong competition from ASEAN countries. At present, the export volume of paper products from ASEAN countries to Vietnam is not large, accounting for only 10% of the total import volume of Vietnam. However, in 2003, the paper import tariff to ASEAN countries will be reduced to 20% and 0% in 2006. At that time, Vietnamese paper industry will face overwhelming competition from Indonesian and Thai paper products

VI. brief introduction of pulp projects negotiated by China and Vietnam (I) projects negotiated by the two governments

1. Project information. The scale is 10000 tons of air dried bleached commercial wood pulp per year; According to the production of 1 ton of pulp from 5 cubic meters of wood, the annual demand for pulp is about million cubic meters. According to the annual production growth of 20 cubic meters per hectare of forest land, about 200000 hectares of raw material forest land are required. Total investment amount: USD 100 million. Address: Yi'an province

2. Progress. In August, 2002, the former State Planning Commission sent an expert delegation to Vietnam for on-the-spot investigation. After fully analyzing the existing raw material forest, suitable forest land, transportation, plant site and other factors, it is concluded that at present, Yi'an province does not have the conditions for the construction of a large-scale pulp project of 500000-750000 tons, and the existing conditions can only meet the requirements for the construction of a pulp project of 10000 tons. In order to make the cooperation between the two sides successful, the Vietnamese side suggests that the two sides study the feasibility of building a 130000 ton pulp project based on the existing conditions from the actual situation, and ask the Chinese side to study and reply as soon as possible. But so far, the national reform and Development Commission has not given any reply

(II) other items negotiated by both companies. In the second half of 2002, China Guangxi International Economic and Technical Cooperation Corporation began to negotiate with Anhe paper mill in Xuanguang Province, Vietnam. And provided it with a technological scheme with an annual output of 120000 tons of pulp; The total investment of the project is about 200million US dollars. The project has been officially approved by the Vietnamese government. Vietnam plans to use Chinese export credit to build the project

VII. A good opportunity for China's domestic papermaking equipment to enter the Vietnamese market

in order to improve the competitiveness of the paper industry and deal with the great challenges faced by the paper industry, the Vietnamese government has formulated a specific plan for the development of the paper industry. According to the plan, Vietnam will devote itself to developing small-scale (10000 tons) papermaking projects

Vietnam has realized that although the process technology and equipment in western developed countries are relatively advanced, they are too expensive. However, China's process technology and equipment have made great progress after 20 years of development, with high quality and low price, which is more suitable for Vietnam's national conditions. At present, the pulp project negotiated by the two governments has run aground, and Vietnam is actively contacting our relevant companies to explore the possibility of cooperation. However, according to our company, Vietnam still has doubts about our process technology and equipment, and is not sure whether I can provide export credit to them. If our financial institutions can provide financial support to our company, our company will make a difference in the development and construction of Vietnam's paper industry

information source: Ministry of Commerce Station

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